The Chicago Cubs entered the 2026 MLB season as the betting favorite to win the NL Central, and it wasn’t particularly close. Near even odds on most sportsbooks, the Cubs stood out as clear favorites in a weak division that saw two teams trade away key players in the offseason and two more who did little to improve.
It can be nerve-wracking to depend on your offseason eye test, projections or Spring Training stats to place a bet on a team’s projected win total before Opening Day. But now that the first week of the regular season has come and gone, let’s dig into the oddsboard and consider: Are the Chicago Cubs a lock to win the NL Central in 2026?
The biggest reason to like the Cubs has less to do with their own roster and more to do with the landscape around them. The NL Central projects as one of the thinnest divisions in baseball, leaving the Cubs with +120 odds to take the division on most sportsbooks. Browse this list of sportsbooks available in Illinois and you’ll find an array of betting apps that offer MLB futures markets, including NL Central betting odds — and they all come with a generous welcome offer if you haven’t yet signed up with the platform.
Can the Chicago Cubs win the NL Central?
In evaluating the Cubs’ chances to win the division, it’s important to first size up their competition. Let’s start with the Pittsburgh Pirates. On paper, they arguably boast the most exciting rotation in the division, headlined not just by Paul Skenes, but other talented young arms like Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller. However, that strength is offset by a glaring weakness: defense. Pittsburgh failed to adequately address its fielding issues, eschewing gloves for better bats, which will prove to be a major concern over a 162-game season. Poor defense doesn’t just cost runs — it undermines pitching strengths, inflates pitch counts, and turns winnable games into losses. Even with elite arms, that imbalance makes it difficult to trust the Pirates as a consistent division winner.
The St. Louis Cardinals, historically a steady presence atop the Central, appear to be taking a step back. After trading away several of their best players, including Brendan Donovan, Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray, this roster looks more like one in transition than one built to contend. While St. Louis rarely stays down for long, it’s difficult to make a case for them as a serious threat in 2026 given the talent they’ve shipped out and the uncertainty surrounding young players like Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman.
Milwaukee, another recent division staple, also took a noticeable step backward. The departures of Freddy Peralta and Caleb Durbin weaken both their pitching depth and overall roster balance. The Brewers have long relied on maximizing value through development and bullpen usage, but losing a frontline arm like Peralta is not easily overcome. Without a clear upgrade elsewhere, Milwaukee looks more vulnerable than in recent seasons. Yes, we say this every year about the Brewers — but manager Pat Murphy can only work so much magic.
Then there’s Cincinnati, a team that showed flashes in their 2025 playoff run but ultimately made minimal changes in the offseason. The Reds are essentially running it back with the same core that fell short last year, with the exception of Eugenio Suarez, a Reds mainstay from 2015-2021. While continuity can be valuable, it’s less encouraging when the baseline wasn’t good enough to begin with. Unless young players like Sal Stewart and Matt McLain take unexpected leaps, Cincinnati looks more like a .500 team than a true division contender.
Against that backdrop, the Cubs don’t need to be elite — they just need to be better than average. And there’s plenty of reason to believe they can clear that bar.
Chicago made one of the splashier moves of the offseason by adding Alex Bregman. Even if he’s no longer at his absolute peak, Bregman brings a combination of plate discipline, power, and postseason experience that elevates the lineup. He lengthens the order and gives the Cubs a reliable bat in high-leverage situations, something they’ve lacked at times in recent years.
The addition of starting pitcher Edward Cabrera is another intriguing move. Cabrera has shown flashes of top-of-the-rotation stuff, with a high-velocity fastball and swing-and-miss secondary pitches. While consistency has been an issue, a change of scenery could unlock another level. If the Cubs can stabilize his command even slightly, he has the upside to become one of the more impactful arms in the division.
Of course, it wasn’t all positive for Chicago this offseason. Losing Kyle Tucker creates a noticeable hole in the lineup, particularly in terms of left-handed power and overall offensive production. Tucker’s departure raises legitimate questions about run generation, especially against high-end pitching. However, in a division in which few teams project to have dominant rotations, the impact of that loss may be somewhat mitigated.
Ultimately, betting on the Cubs at +120 comes down to a simple calculation: stability versus uncertainty. Chicago has improved in key areas and maintained a competitive core, while their divisional rivals have either regressed, failed to improve, or introduced significant risk factors.
In a stronger division, the Cubs might look like a fringe contender. In the 2026 NL Central, they look like the safest bet. And at +120, the pick may not be dripping with value — but we’ll take a favorite at plus odds any day.
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