The Chicago Cubs, on Thursday, named Matthew Boyd their Opening Day starter. It was the safe, reasonable choice to make considering Boyd’s 2025.
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The veteran lefty came to the Cubs as a bit of a free agent gamble last season, coming off a long history of injury and Tommy John surgery in mid-2023. Originally targeted for 110-120 innings as a back-end-of rotation starter, Boyd exceeded all expectations and performed his way into being the ace of the staff with a 3.21 ERA in 179.2 innings over 31 starts.
So, yes, Boyd was the logical choice for Opening Day.
That designation, though, probably paints a clearer picture for the rest of the rotation order.
Boyd on Opening Day, and then what?
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The Cubs would probably want a power right-hander coming after the more nuanced lefty. That means probably Cade Horton, but it could also mean newcomer Edward Cabrera. Then, maybe, another nuanced lefty in Shota Imanaga. After that, either Horton or Cabrera, whoever didn’t land the no. 2 spot in the rotation. That would leave Jameson Taillon as the no. 5 starter.
A probable rotation might look like this (although, obviously, the order could easily be all scrambled up behind Boyd):
Matthew Boyd
Cade Horton
Shota Imanaga
Edward Cabrera
Jameson Taillon
Things get a bit more complicated, however, when Justin Steele returns after being on the shelf, recovering from elbow surgery last April. Upon his comeback (expected before mid-season), someone will have to be booted from their rotation spot. Who gets the boot will be determined, obviously, by who has been the least effective at the time of Steele’s return.
One also has to consider the fact that the Cubs have a pair of very capable swingmen in Javier Assad and Colin Rea, with Ben Brown also having starter potential. Assad has been having a killer spring so far and Rea performed admirably in the rotation last season, making up for the injury-related absences of Steele, Imanaga, and Taillon.
A Plan B, Plan C?
Some have theorized that Chicago could possibly go with a 6-man rotation for at least part of the season, given their depth and the need/desire to preserve arms for what they hope to be a deep postseason run.
They could also piggyback starters for a stretch of time, maybe pairing two for a single game, utilizing all of their nine potential starters to deliver multi-inning outings and save wear and tear on a staff that does have considerable injury and durability concerns. Although this strategy might end up taxing the bullpen disproportionately, essentially forcing a small handful of dedicated relievers to cover almost all relief innings.
Whatever the Cubs decide, the elephant in the room will always be the staff’s health and durability concerns. Boyd, Horton, and Cabrera have significant history of injury. Taillon and Imanaga spent a good amount of time on the IL last year. And Steele, of course, is coming back from major elbow surgery.
An ace in the hole may be top pitching prospect Jaxon Wiggins, who some are hoping could be the Cade Horton of 2026, moving up from the minors to win a spot in the Cubs rotation. There’s also hope that lefty Jordan Wicks can get healthy and finally put it all together for a good major league run.
For now, all the Cubs can do is lay down their pieces and play them. Soon enough, everyone will know whether a Plan B or C is necessary.
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